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2.2 Sectoral performance III: Economic Report on Africa 2007
The energy sector

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Solid Growth in Sight, but There Are Risks
Solid growth is expected to continue in 2005 and 2006 – although at a slightly lower rate of 4.7 per cent in 2005 as the effect of new Central African oil fields ends. West Africa is expected to recover in 2005 and 2006, while the trend of positive growth in Eastern Africa and Southern Africa will continue over the next two years, reflecting rising oil production in Angola and improved performance in South Africa. This positive outlook is however highly dependent on the continuous expansion of the global economy, an overall easing of regional conflicts, and favourable weather conditions.

Improving Management of Oil Revenue during Periods of Price Booms
With more than 100 billion barrels, Africa had 9 per cent of the world’s oil reserves by the end of 2003. Half are located in North Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, the oil-producing countries can be divided into three categories: the old ones where production is in decline (Congo, Cameroon and Gabon); those where production is still on the increase (Angola, Nigeria); and the new members of the club (Equatorial Guinea, Chad and São Tomé and Principe). However, most of these countries have suffered from the “oil curse” finding themselves heavily indebted and impoverished.

IV. B. Private Investors: THE ROLE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR
While the deals of Chinese state-owned oil companies such as CNPC, CNOOC, and SINOPEC in Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Sudan caught headlines, millions of U.S. dollars were being invested by Chinese private enterprises in Africa with little fanfare (Box 1). These investments are not confined to textiles and mining. They cover a variety of services from agriculture to processing and manufacturing.

Don't Drive in the Dark
We recently utilized our airpower against Libya arguably by numerous people from both side of the aisle without an End Game. To me, that is like driving in the dark. At that point we have no idea of the outcome. Without lights, euphuism for an End Game, the odds are not in our favor. You don’t get up in the morning and get in your car without knowing exactly what your destination is. That is what an End Game is all about; what exactly is your destination. You can’t run a company effectively, maximizing all opportunity without creating a long term plan. And, there is no such thing as a long term plan that will work without a defined End Game. The Libya situation reminds me of what I often see in companies every day. It’s either a lack of serious long term planning or the lack of a defined End Game.

You Will Notice What We Tell You To Notice!
Just the other day... months and months after the fact... the venerable Washington Post reported that, though it went "largely unnoticed" at the time, Islamicists were at the center of the "Arab Spring" revolutions earlier this year, including the more recent regime change in Libya....

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