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Concluding Remarks: Enhancing Africa’s Trade: From Marginalization to an Export-Led Approach to Development
In the 19th and 20th centuries, trade has by and large been an engine of economic growth for the global economy. It has also acted as an engine of growth for particular national economies -- in the 19th century, Canada and Australia and in the 20th century, Japan. In recent years, trade has acted as an engine of growth for the newly industrializing countries of Southeast Asia, the so-called "Gang of Four", namely, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
5.4 References: Economic Report on Africa 2007
References
4.4 References: Economic Report on Africa 2007
References
4.3 Conclusion: Economic Report on Africa 2007
The following conclusions summarize the results of Africa’s export diversification efforts and results:
4.1 Case studies on export diversification for selected African countries: Economic Report on Africa 2007
So far, diversification trends in relation to African economies indicate that different countries have achieved varying results. The overall conclusion is that, in general, African economies have failed to make gains beyond their initial positions in the early 1980s. It has also been pointed out that they reacted defensively to the crises that beset them in the 1980s. Their macroeconomic stabilization policies did not create an environment conducive for dynamic response, as a good number of countries in Asia and Latin America were able to do. Their defensive response as seen in the oil factor, perpetuated the status quo and worsened it in some instances. Earlier gains in such countries as Gabon, Nigeria and Sudan were eroded.

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4.0 Diversification trends in Africa: Economic Report on Africa 2007
The diversification of African economies is one way through which the recent economic growth achievements could be sustained. Africa’s economic transformation can be achieved through both horizontal and vertical diversification. In addition, such diversification will help to build competitive economies that can productively be integrated into the global economy. Diversification is therefore a pre-condition if Africa is to register accelerated development. The scaling-up of current real growth to desired levels and in a broad manner can also be sustained if there is deepening in the diversification of African economies.
4.1 Diversification trends at the regional level: Economic Report on Africa 2007
Figure 4.1 shows three different measures of diversification for African economies as a whole (see Ben Hammouda et al. (2006a) for detailed definition of the indices of diversification). Three concise comments on the general trend of Africa’s diversification experience can be made.
4.2 Diversification regimes in Africa: Economic Report on Africa 2007
Analysing the various diversification indices and the structure of the top ten export commodities for selected countries over the last two decades and a half provides some useful insights which can be used to define diversification regimes that characterize Africa. Five diversification regimes can be identified from Africa’s experience (see Ben Hammouda et al. 2006b). These regimes should not be viewed as steps or as a continuum that a country must follow as it moves from a concentrated to a diversified economy. Rather, the regimes are a result of the policy actions that a country has set in place over a given period of time. The particular regime that a country falls into is likely to be the result of a mix among the various diversification determinants.

4.3 Conclusion: Economic Report on Africa 2007
The following conclusions summarize the results of Africa’s export diversification efforts and results:
5.1 Determinants of diversification in Africa: Economic Report on Africa 2007
Diversification and policy variables constitute a two-way process in that diversification not only influences policy outcomes, but is itself influenced by policy variables. This proposition naturally leads to the search for those economic and non-economic policy actions that are likely to affect the level and rate of diversification in a country. What evidence is there that links economic and non-economic variables with national capacity to diversify?
5.1 Investment is vital for an economy to diversify: Economic Report on Africa 2007
The inverse relationship between investment and the diversification index shown in table A5.1 indicates that as the level of investments increases, there is a tendency for economies to become more diversified. The smaller the diversification index gets, the more diversified an economy becomes, and vice-versa for specialization. Unless a country commits a sufficient portion of its national income to building capital stock, it is unlikely to be able to diversify. Investment as measured by gross fixed capital formation turns out to be a key determinant to Africa’s diversification results.
5.1 Fiscal space is critical for diversification: Economic Report on Africa 2007
The positive but insignificant result for the impact of fiscal balance on diversification shows that macro stability plays a role for the success of diversification efforts. At the same time, a proactive fiscal policy, especially in terms of promoting public investment, can support efforts towards diversification.
5.1 The results vary by diversification regime: Economic Report on Africa 2007
At this point, it is worthwhile to recall the five diversification regimes: those countries with little diversification; countries that started but got stuck in the diversification process; those with deepened diversification; backsliders in diversification; and the conflict and post-conflict countries. This report suggests that belonging to a particular regime has more to do with policy and institutional factors at the country level. Consequently, there are different determinants when the discussion is brought to the country level (see table A5.2 for correlation results).
5.2 Diversification-deepening policies raise growth and TFP: Economic Report on Africa 2007
What then do these results imply? They mean that pursuing diversification-deepening policies could help accelerate growth. Important policy implications of this link arise with respect to the determinants of diversification that were discussed earlier in the chapter.
III.b. E-Commerce and Primary Commodity Markets: E-COMMERCE AND SMALL ENTREPRENEURS
Most low-income developing countries continue to be primary commodity exporters (including oil, gas and other minerals, and agricultural products). Thus, short of wholesale diversification into manufactures and services, their immediate interest is in how e-commerce may affect competitiveness in their traditional export markets.
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