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The Positive Side Of Recession
Economies rely on a degree of overconfidence. There is a gap between present realities and future expectations without which there would be no enterprise, no investment, no credit, no commerce, and no currency.
Confident at Cold Calling? A Reality Check on Postive Thinking
Before you make a cold call, do you “gear up” first? Do you get excited about your product or service, and try to anticipate making the sale?

Other overconfidence Related Articles

The Positive Side Of Recession
Economies rely on a degree of overconfidence. There is a gap between present realities and future expectations without which there would be no enterprise, no investment, no credit, no commerce, and no currency.
Revising the Forbes Message of the Day for the Sales Force
The Forbes Success Calendar for 2/25/09 said, "Action and reaction, ebb and flow, trial and error, change - this is the rhythm of our living. Out of our overconfidence, fear; out of our fear, clearer vision, fresh hope. And out of hope, progress." - Bruce Barton I think this quote requires a serious revision - for the sales force and for the company. First, let's make it shorter.

The Red Team: A Simple But Effective Method to Improve Mission Planning
In mission planning, the practice of utilizing a Red Team is necessary. A Red Team is a simple means to overcome the overconfidence bias and the theory of "groupthink," the need for groups to seek conformity and unanimity in planning and decision making. Tactical planning processes must be subjected to a Red Team to minimize errors and to foresee future problems.
Ilusions in Regression Analysis
Soyer and Hogarth’s article, “The Illusion of Predictability,” shows that diagnostic statistics that are commonly provided with regression analysis lead to confusion, reduced accuracy, and overconfidence. Even highly competent researchers are subject to these problems. This overview examines the Soyer-Hogarth findings in light of prior research on illusions associated with regression analysis. It also summarizes solutions that have been proposed over the past century. These solutions would enhance the value of regression analysis.

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